French studies pessimistic for second wave

Mask-wearing will help to contain the virus, one study found, but other strong measures must be respected

Two recent French scientific studies have made pessimistic predictions about the likelihood of a major second wave of Covid-19 later this year following deconfinement measures.

The studies by a group from the AP-HP Paris hospitals group and the French research body Inserm both state that it will require considerable discipline to keep the numbers of new cases under control, but even then a second wave is a serious risk, they claim.

The first study by AP-HP found that social distancing and mask-wearing would slow the epidemic but would not be enough to prevent intensive care units being overwhelmed by the end of July and a second lockdown being required unless it was also accompanied by ‘shielding’ of vulnerable people (eg. the elderly and those with chronic illnesses such as diabetes, severe high blood pressure, lung conditions and obesity).

It would therefore be necessary for most of those concerned to strictly limit their contacts with others ...

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