Experts predict the likeliest trends for France’s weather this summer

France’s national forecaster Météo France has released likely weather trends for the summer.

Covering from July to September, the report looks at the probability of various scenarios playing out.

The forecaster says there is more chance that temperatures across France will be warmer than normal.

It comes after last month was recorded as the second warmest June since 1900. Only 2003 was hotter.

Météo France added there was a higher chance of it being more humid around the Mediterranean, although this does not necessarily mean a significant increase in rainfall.

The weather predictions are not designed to give exact weather patterns for the months ahead but “identify probabilistic trends on a European scale”, clarified the bulletin.

La Chaîne Météo, a rival weather channel, released its own trends for the summer period, also predicting warmer temperatures across all of France, as well as more frequent storms than usual around the Mediterranean.

Mediterranean set to be most affected

Météo France’s weather trends give a probability of a particular scenario happening.

For example, it says there is a 60% chance temperatures in France will be warmer than normal, a 20% chance they will be around the average and a 20% probability they will be colder.

The trend gives information for all of Europe – Central Europe is in fact less likely to see increased temperatures than elsewhere – but the probability of warmer weather is the same across all of France.

For humidity, however, there are slight differences.

There is a 50% chance that areas bordering the Mediterranean - broadly, the Pyrénées up to Nice, as well as Corsica - will be more humid. Meanwhile, there is a 25% chance humidity will be the same and a 25% probability it will be lower than normal.

Despite a higher chance of a more humid summer around the Mediterranean, Météo France points out that “the season is usually very dry,” in the area, and this scenario “does not necessarily mean large amounts of precipitation or an end to the drought present in many regions”.

Read more: This is how the French government plans to deal with future heatwaves

Up to 2C warmer

La Chaîne Météo’s summer weather trend predictions were mostly in alignment with Météo France’s.

Its report states that temperatures could be between 1.5 and 2C warmer than summer averages (from the last 30 years).

The prediction of warmer weather was “seen fairly unanimously by the seasonal numerical models” it uses to measure trends and the forecaster believes “heat waves will be inevitable.”

Whilst the intensity of these heat waves may be stronger, their duration may be shorter – thanks to thunderstorms.

“Our model envisages a thundery development, mainly from the south-west to the centre-east, and over the Mediterranean hinterland,” the report said.

The report warned, however, that estimations of rainfall “are less predictable”, than for temperatures, so experts are unsure of how much rain France will see in the summer months.

It also aligned with Météo France’s report, with both saying there is no indication that the effects of a summer drought will be less severe than last year, even in areas with higher levels of thunderstorms predicted.

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