Jobless drop likely a fluke
Statistical anomaly most likely cause of sharpest decline in unemployment since 2000
A STATISTICAL anomaly is the most likely cause of the first decline in unemployment since 2011 and the sharpest since 2000.
Even the minister for work, Michel Sapin, said the figures “were encouraging, but should still be interpreted with prudence”.
The latest data from the Pôle Emploi job centre shows 50,000 fewer people out of work in August compared to the previous month. Such a drop would be the sharpest since 2000 and the first positive news for unemployment since 2011.
Analysts have said the figure is likely to come from the way the Pôle Emploi updates its lists each month.
At the end of each month unemployed people are required to declare their situation. If they do not, they are automatically removed from the list. While some of these people will have actually found jobs, others will have simply forgotten or given up looking.
On average 200,000 are removed from the list each month, (a figure that is adjusted in final unemployment tallies) however in August this figure shot up to 277,000, roughly 40% higher than normal.
Analysts at the ministry’s statistics office Dares said they could find no software failure, changes in recording methods or procedure that could explain the sudden “exceptional” jump.
Other employment-related figures however do also point to an improvement in the economy. The number of people signing on due to the end of temporary contracts or redundancies dropped 7% and 1.6% respectively.
The government has said it wishes to see unemployment dropping consistently by the end of the year.
Photo: Gilles Leimdorfer
