Judges are set to deliver their ruling tomorrow (July 7) in the long-running embezzlement case against far-right MP Marine Le Pen, with the decision expected to determine whether she can run in the 2027 presidential election.
The much-anticipated decision from the Paris appeals court over a 2025 verdict against Ms Le Pen and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) for embezzlement of EU funds will have major ramifications for the 2027 election, for both the party and opposition leaders.
If she is barred from running for public office her protégé Jordan Bardella, 30, will lead the party into the campaign, with the far-right group insisting its manifesto will remain unchanged under him.
Both leaders come out on top against all other rivals in hypothetical second-round run-offs of the 2027 presidential election, but Mr Bardella wins more comprehensively.
Last week, the French government confirmed that the first round of the 2027 presidential election would be held on April 18, with the second round (if no candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round) on May 2.
What is the court appeal decision about?
In March 2025 Ms Le Pen was sentenced alongside 24 other members of the RN for the misuse of some €2.9 million of EU funds.
The sentence for Ms Le Pen constituted a four-year prison term (two years suspended), a €100,000 fine, and crucially a five-year ban on running for public office.
Prosecutors called for a rare measure known as exécution provisoire (provisional execution) making the penalties immediate – French law does not usually impose all parts of a sentence until an appeal has been heard – with this request accepted by the court.
The far-right immediately condemned the decision as a politically-motivated attack against a talismanic (but not official) leader of the party who was all but confirmed to be leading the party in the 2027 election.
An appeal was quickly lodged, but it was unsure if it would be read in time for the 2027 election, due to a backlog in Paris’ court system.
It was brought forward to allow for a February 2026 hearing, making sure the decision was in place well in time for the 2027 campaign.
During the appeal, prosecutors reiterated calls for the same penalties including the ban on running for public office, albeit with a three-year suspended prison sentence as opposed to two.
It may be the case that the original sentence is upheld, or a lighter form with penalties either lessened or fully omitted is handed down, and there is a possibility the court overturns the sentence altogether.
Initially, Ms Le Pen and the far-right said they would challenge an unfavourable appeal court’s decision with France’s Supreme Court, which could lead to an unprecedented legal scenario based on her right to run in the presidential election.
However, Ms Le Pen and the RN have since said that they will not aim to overturn a ban on her running for public office (although may appeal other measures such as a prison sentence, if these are handed down).
If this is the outcome, then it is all but a certainty that Jordan Bardella will lead the party for the presidential election.
Mr Bardella has been steadfast in his support for Ms Le Pen, and continued to affirm that he would want her as the party’s presidential candidate, with him taking the role of prime minister (provided the party won a majority of votes in the Assemblée nationale at a later legislative election).
Most opponents prefer Bardella to Le Pen
The prospect of a campaign against Mr Bardella is preferred by most rival parties, according to French media reports at the start of the week.
“If it’s [Marine] Le Pen, it is going to be very difficult for us,” an unnamed government minister said, quoted in FranceInfo.
“She already has three presidential campaigns under her belt; she is more formidable and dangerous than Jordan Bardella. He has no political track record or professional experience, and he is too young,” said another high-ranking member of the Renaissance party.
“Marine Le Pen has the most solid base, because her voters see her as having a track record, experience, and sincerity in her anti-establishment fight,” said another Renaissance member.
Le Pen led the far-right party between 2011 and 2022, spearheading its ascent from the political fringes to the more mainstream, established party it is today.
She is still a talismanic figure and without the court case, would undoubtedly be leading the party in next spring’s campaign.
“When your name is Le Pen and you grew up in the 1990s and 2000s, you were toughened by political combat,” said a left-wing politician to FranceInfo, referencing the party’s previous name (Front National) and leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, father of Marine.
“[Jordan] Bardella was born with a political silver spoon in his mouth. An apparatchik, he was instantly adored by the masses, but he hasn't been hardened by political battle in the same way Marine Le Pen has,” they added.
Indeed, Mr Bardella led the party to victory in the 2024 European elections, but the ensuing legislatures saw the party fail to achieve its goals at the Assemblée nationale.
Despite being the largest single party, the far-right group finished third behind coalitions of the far-left/left and centre-right.
Scenes of dismay at party headquarters as the results were announced live long in the memory of the party, who are quietly fearful of slipping up despite a commanding lead once more.
… But Bardella still dangerous
Not everyone believes Jordan Bardella is a weaker opponent than Ms Le Pen.
For all Ms Le Pen’s strengths she has a raft of weaknesses, not least of all the court case that looms over her.
Polls since 2025 have pointed to the case blemishing Ms Le Pen’s status, and being viewed negatively including by some far-right voters.
Close to 40% of far-right voters polled said that Ms Le Pen being barred from running in 2027 would benefit the party, allowing the party to end its Le Pen era and start afresh with a new figurehead.
Years in the spotlight make her experienced, but fail to give her the refreshing buzz that surrounds Mr Bardella, who if elected president would become the country’s youngest ever leader.
The shadow of the Front National may no longer hang over the party, but Ms Le Pen is intimately associated with both that name and her father, sentenced several times for racism and anti-semitism.
If voting for the RN is now palatable for the French public, the name ‘Le Pen’ is still enough to alienate some voters.
In comparison, Mr Bardella is unblemished by this attachment, and is the image of the party’s entrance into the mainstream political fold (if criticised for a lack of attendance for his role as an MEP, a role he has retained despite leading the party at a national level).
He has been almost singularly molded by Ms Le Pen and the party hierarchy to be the long-term face of the RN and although 2027 may have been slightly early in their timeline for him to lead them throughout a presidential campaign, the thought cannot have been too far removed.
“Watch out, [Jordan] Bardella can be a campaigning powerhouse; those who think Marine Le Pen is a better candidate than he might be mistaken,” said a different minister to FranceInfo.
A June 2026 Ifop-Fiducial poll gave Ms Le Pen a voting intention of 32%, far below Mr Bardella at 35% - 37%.
Is Bardella experienced enough?
At the same time, his lack of experience in leading a presidential campaign is met with relish by some opponents.
“He’s weak and will try to avoid debates, but there is no escaping the cameras,” said a senior Green Party member to FranceInfo.
“I think Jordan Bardella is very fragile. A presidential campaign is all about the unexpected and going off-script; it is not like those hour-long shows where everything is carefully controlled,” said an ally of President Emmanuel Macron.
Political commentators have noted a lack of political instinct in Mr Bardella, and despite all his curated sensibilities a failure to give adequate responses to unexpected questions.
A famous episode in December 2025 saw Mr Bardella widely mocked on social media after his appearance on a TV talk show, where he was asked ‘if you could ask [former French President] Nicolas Sarkozy anything, what would it be?’
Mr Bardella responded ‘where does he get the energy?’, which was seen as underwhelming by the studio audience. He was then asked the same question about US President Donald Trump, and unable to think, answered with the same comment, leading to derision from other panelists.
More recently, he has been criticised for what some believe is an un-presidential desire to be in the spotlight, highlighting his relationship to Maria Carolina de Bourbon des Deux-Siciles, and his attendance of events including this year’s Monaco Grand Prix.
Mr Bardella attended the grand prix rather than a silent march for 11-year-old Lyhanna, murdered in south-west France by a man who had numerous claims of underage sexual assault against him but had never been fully investigated by authorities.
Mr Bardella’s remark of “there are silent marches everyday” when asked about the contrast between the two events led to furore, and questions over how he would deal with a presidential campaign that is expected to be nasty, brutish, and anything but short.
