Population of France to grow to 70 million people

France's population reached a record 68.6 million in January, with experts predicting it will continue to rise for the next 20 years up to 70 million, due to migration replacing a declining birth rate. 

It grew by 169,000 in 2024, with 17,000 coming from ‘natural growth’ – births over deaths – and 152,000 from immigration. Gilles Pison and Laurent Toulemon, of demographics institute Ined, predict that from 2027 the country will record more deaths than births each year. 

However, inward migration means the country is likely to see its population continue to grow for 20 years. Population growth has been constant in France since 1950, when the country had 42 million inhabitants. 

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The researchers predict growth flattening out at 70 million by 2040, then declining to about 68 million again in 2070. 

These predictions broadly match those from the state statistics agency Insee, which gives a ‘high’ population estimate of just under 80 million by 2070 and a ‘low’ of 57 million. 

The Ined study also shows that life expectancy since the 1950s has increased by three months every year. 

However, there have been signs of this slowing in recent years. In 1950, average life expectancy was 66.4 years – it is now 82.8 years. 

Over a century, the biggest drop in causes of death was in infections and respiratory diseases, divided by a factor of eight due to antibiotics and advances in treating viruses. 

There has been a similar fall in the number of people in France dying from heart disease.

 Cancer deaths rose steadily until the 1990s, as a proportion of all deaths, but have since dropped a little due to earlier detection. 

“The smaller increase in life expectancy over the past 12 years is perhaps a sign that the benefits from revolutions in the treatment of heart disease are starting to slow down,” the researchers say. 

“Future progress might increasingly depend on the fight against cancers, which have become the main cause of death.” 

They note that fewer men are dying of cancer than before. This is not the case for women, in part because women born after 1930 were of a generation that saw an increase in smokers, who are now getting more cancers as a result.