Pyrénées could become a local climate refuge

In a worst-case scenario the cross-border research project revealed temperatures would increase by between 4.3C and 7.1C. In the best-case scenario – even if ambitious global targets set by the Paris Accord are met – they will rise by 1.6 - 3.5C

Samuel Morin, director of the Centre d’Etudes de la Neige and a member of the research team, told Connexion: “We cannot predict how humanity will change its greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century.

“So we looked at so-called ‘optimistic’ scenarios, of massive reductions in emissions, which limit global warming to around 2C by the end of the century, compared to the pre-industrial period in the 19th century, and more ‘pessimistic’ or ‘realistic’ scenarios.

“The increase in temperature will have direct or indirect consequences for multiple sectors and ecosystems.

“Now work needs to be continued to better measure the impacts.”

He added: “Even with a sharp increase, air temperature will generally remain below that of the plain, and mountains could play a role as a climatic refuge for those who live in surrounding plains.

“This is already been observed in the case of heatwaves, with an increase in the number of nights that people spend in the mountains.”