Calm weather before temperatures to drop next week in France

A calm weekend in France is expected as temperatures begin to drop, before a more pronounced shift next week. 

A mass of cold air will descend on France, dropping morning temperatures and bringing frosts to much of the country, before a further drop is forecast next weekend in association with a renewed blast of cold air.

However, there is little chance of rain across the week, furthering drought concerns. 

Friday October 30 

Friday sets the tone for the weekend, with a calm and quiet day. 

Sunshine is expected across France, following some morning fog in central areas. 

Aside from the south-east, which will see only five hours of sunshine, most of the country will see at least eight hours of sun today, up to 10 in some southern-central areas and north-east of Paris.

Highs of 10C - 14C in the north, 15C in Brittany, and 16C - 20C in the south are forecast, slightly above average for the season. 

Saturday October 31 

Calm conditions remain on Saturday, as France continues to benefit from a high-pressure anticyclone system from the British Isles.

Ample sunshine is forecast once more, with only a few wispy clouds in Brittany. 

Afternoon highs will be consistent with Friday, although maximum temperatures in the south may be 1C or 2C lower, at around 19C. 

Although afternoons are mild, if you are going out to ‘trick or treat’ in the evening with children, note that night-time conditions will be fresh and you should all wrap up warm. 

Some rural areas could see night-time temperatures drop to 0C or below, and in the north remain at around 2C - 3C. In the south it will be warmer, but with night-time temperatures rooted in single digits.

Sunday November 1 

Sunday sees only one small change to the calm conditions, with a risk of rain in the south-east along the French Riviera and the southern Alps. 

This rain should not be heavy but may fall as persistent drizzle across much of the day. 

Elsewhere, dry weather is expected to continue, albeit there may be more clouds in the sky in Normandy and along the Seine. 

Toussaint (All Saints’ Day) typically sees French families lay flowers in cemeteries, and the calm weather conditions should not impede this practice. 

However, temperatures will be noticeably cooler than Saturday, dropping by between 2C and 4C. Make sure you wrap up warm if you plan on being outside. 

Cold drop to come

The anticyclonic weather keeping French skies calm and dry will also start to bring a mass of cold air over the country. 

Early forecasts suggest that conditions across next week will remain sunny and free of rain, with temperatures slowly dropping as the week progresses.

On Wednesday (November 4), chilly conditions could see temperatures of single digits across most of the country, and temperatures between -3C and -5C compared to usual for the season.

These temperatures will then stabilise, and by November 6 (next Friday), highs of 7C - 10C in the north are forecast, considerably cooler than October 30 but still within the range of seasonal norms for the start of November.

A blast of cool air is forecast to hit on November 7, sweeping into France and covering the north-east of the country.

This could see below-freezing conditions, and limit daily highs in the north-east to around 5C.

The rest of the country will see morning temperatures drop, but daily highs remain mostly within seasonal averages.

The cold drop could bring renewed morning frosts to most of France, but it is worth noting that the brunt of this cold air mass will hit central and eastern Europe (particularly Poland), with France left mostly unscathed. 

It does mean, however, that another week without rain is forecast, and it may not be until November 10 that any rain of significance falls. 

This will place a further strain on France’s dwindling water tables, and fuel fears that winter rainfall will not provide enough precipitation to replenish these aquifers following the devastating heatwaves and drought this summer. 

Rainfall in October only partially began to refill aquifers, and much more is needed over the coming months.