The newly-formed government of re-appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is already at risk of being ousted less than a day after it was announced, as the threat of several motions of no confidence looms.
The ‘Lecornu II’ government features several new faces in ministerial roles, including Paris Police Prefecture Laurent Nuñez as Interior Minister and civil servant Édouard Geffray as Education Minister.
These are among a number of ‘non-political’ appointments in the new-look government, coming from the ranks of civil servants as opposed to political parties.
The change in personnel is due to two main factors.
Firstly, it is in part a response to criticism of his initial cabinet being too ideologically similar to that of predecessor François Bayrou.
Secondly, however, it comes from the fact many prominent ministers in his first administration belonged to the right-wing Les Républicains party, which formally announced it would not back the prime minister and officially withdrew support for the governing coalition.
A squabble within the heart of the party over the matter led to a partial breaking of ranks, as Lecornu II contains six Les Républicains members among its ministerial ranks.
A full list of the members of the new cabinet can be found below.
A notable exclusion is leader of the party and former Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau.
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In a letter published on the party’s website this morning, Mr Retailleau said his “conviction is that the right cannot participate in a government that will embody Macronism in its final stages.”
“No French person is fooled: this government can only survive by reaching a non-censorship agreement with the Socialist Party. The role of the right is not to pursue left-wing policies,” he added.
The Socialist Party is far from set on backing Mr Lecornu however.
Socialists threaten vote of no confidence
The weakened support has left the government at risk of all but immediate collapse.
There are now even fewer MPs on its side than during the previous minority governments in place since the 2024 legislative elections, and even within the centrist coalitions parties such as Edouard Philippe’s Horizons are hesitant to fully back Mr Lecornu.
THe current make-up of the Assemblée can be seen below.
It means the exact number of votes the prime minister can rely on – both to pass vital legislation such as the 2026 budget, and to back him in inevitable votes of confidence – has further diminished.
Usually, a budget must be presented to MPs no later than October 13 (today), to allow at least 70 days of debate.
However, due to the recent political instability the budget has not yet been presented to the Council of Ministers – this will either be done later today or tomorrow morning – and will not be brought to MPs until after this.
To allow for 70 days of debate, extraordinary weekend sessions of the Assemblée may be called.
Mr Lecornu will therefore likely officially unveil the budget in parliament tomorrow (October 14), before giving a politique générale (a general policy speech).
Mr Lecornu has stated that the aim of his tenureship is largely to pass a budget before the end of the year, avoiding an unprecedented second year without one (the 2025 budget was passed late and was significantly stripped down due to this) that would throw the country even further into crisis.
The general policy speech will outline how Mr Lecornu will attempt to pass the text, and if he is offering any policies to gain further support in the chamber.
In short, the general policy speech is key for Mr Lecornu’s chances of survival.
The far-left and far-right parties have already announced they will ‘immediately’ issue votes of no confidence against the prime minister.
For a vote of no confidence to succeed and immediately topple the government, it needs a majority of MPs – 289 of the 577 in the chamber.
The extreme flanks together cannot reach this number, but can through the support of some of the traditional right and left parties such as the Socialists, Greens, and Les Républicains.
While the right-wing group has withdrawn its support but has not announced any intention to try and bring it down, Socialist MPs are waiting until Tuesday’s speech from Mr Lecornu to decide their next steps.
Notably, the party will table a vote of no confidence against the government if Mr Lecornu does not announce a suspension of 2023’s pension reforms.
The Socialists pushed hard for an overturning of the reform in discussions with Mr Lecornu last week, as he attempted to gain enough support to continue in the role.
Saved on a technicality?
If ousted, Mr Lecornu and his cabinet must immediately resign, forcing President Emmanuel Macron to appoint yet another prime minister.
Mr Macron may feel there is no choice but to dissolve parliament and call new legislative elections.
However, many are wary of this as an election campaign would eat into the limited time available to debate and pass the 2026 budget, the contents of which are already set to be fiercely contested between parties over ideological lines.
This concern may save Mr Lecornu’s government from being ousted, with MPs choosing to back the government or abstain on a vote of no confidence, at least until the start of 2026.
However, a second element means Mr Lecornu may be saved on a technicality of the votes.
As stated, for a vote of no confidence to pass, a majority of MPs must vote against the government.
Crucially however, this must be from the same motion.
If two separate motions – for example brought forward by the far-right and far-left – cumulatively attain more than 289 MPs, but separately both fail to reach an overall majority, then the government will survive.
The ideological differences between far-right and far-left, as well as the political desire to seem in opposition to each other at all times, means they are unlikely to back any motion put forward by the other.
The far-right Rassemblement National extraordinarily supported a far-left motion to topple former prime minister Michel Barnier in December 2024 – coincidentally over the 2025 budget and Mr Barnier’s attempt to force it through without a vote by MPs.
The party’s move was controversial however, as the far-left motion criticised the party (by way of attacking the perceived support from the far-right for the centrist government as leading to its illegitimacy).
It may be that the far-right is unwilling to ‘concede ground’ once more and vote for a far-left motion, expecting the far-left to take its turn in backing the far-right.
For its part, the Socialist Party said it would file ‘its own’ motion if unsatisfied by Mr Lecornu’s speech on Tuesday.
Perhaps a motion put forward by a more centrist party would be more palatable for both extreme wings to support, however it is also possible it just adds another minority-backed motion that the government can survive.
