TotalEnergies boss warns of fuel shortages in France, Macron responds

France could face fuel shortages within months if disruption to the Strait of Hormuz continues, the head of TotalEnergies has warned, prompting a response from President Macron, who says the situation is under control.

Speaking on April 24, CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the country risked entering an “era of energy shortages” if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz lasted “two or three more months”.

Warning over prolonged disruption

The Strait of Hormuz, through which around one fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally pass, has been severely restricted since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February.

Mr Pouyanné said existing reserves have now been fully used up to cushion the impact.

“If the situation continues for two or three months, we will enter an era of shortages, similar to that some Asian countries are already experiencing,” he said.

He added that Europe had not yet reached that point, but warned that leaving “20% of global oil and gas reserves inaccessible” would inevitably have “major consequences”.

TotalEnergies has already lost around 15% of its Middle East production due to the crisis, Mr Pouyanné said.

He also called for greater “resilience” in energy infrastructure, suggesting investment in new pipeline networks to reduce reliance on the strait.

Gulf oil remained difficult to replace, he added, partly due to its relatively low cost.

Shortages not yet visible at pumps

Despite the warnings, there is currently little sign of widespread disruption at French petrol stations.

As of April 25, only around 2.8% of the country’s 9,700 service stations were experiencing supply shortages, according to official data - down significantly from a peak of 27.8% earlier in the month.

Breakdowns show shortages affecting roughly 1.2% of petrol (SP95-E10) pumps and 0.8% of diesel pumps.

This suggests that while markets are tightening, the situation on the ground remains relatively stable for now.

Experts warn situation could deteriorate

Energy specialists broadly support Mr Pouyanné’s assessment, warning that current stability may not last if disruption continues.

“The markets do not yet show a shortage, but we are starting to see difficulties,” said energy expert Philippe Charlez, pointing to the highly fluid nature of global oil markets, where cargoes can be redirected toward higher-paying regions such as Asia.

Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po Paris, said shortages were effectively “at Europe’s doorstep”, adding that governments must anticipate risks rather than react to them.

He also noted that France’s strategic reserves - often cited by officials as a buffer - are subject to international coordination rules via the International Energy Agency, limiting unilateral use.

Aviation fuel among first at risk

Some sectors could feel the impact earlier than others.

Mr Pouyanné warned that if the crisis continues beyond May, shortages could begin to affect specific products such as kerosene, potentially forcing rationing in aviation or diesel use.

Experts agree aviation fuel is particularly exposed, with Thierry Bros stating that “kerosene is likely to be the first to be affected”.

This echoes concerns from the aviation sector, where Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said fuel supplies were only guaranteed until the end of May, and that the industry must prepare for a summer of disruption.

Even if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz resumes soon, experts warn that supply chains may not quickly return to normal.

Damage to energy infrastructure in Gulf countries could take significant time to repair, while maritime traffic remains extremely limited, with tankers currently passing only sporadically through the region.

‘The worst thing is panic’

On April 25, President Macron downplayed the risk to France's fuel supply, saying there was currently “no scenario” pointing to fuel shortages in France.

“At this stage, the situation is under control,” he said. “We are not in the worst-case scenario, and it is not the most likely outcome.”

Mr Macron cautioned against alarmist messaging, warning that shortages can be exacerbated by consumer behaviour.

“In moments of geopolitical tension and uncertainty, the worst thing is panic. Often, shortages are created by panic itself,” he said.

The government has consistently maintained that there is no immediate risk of supply disruption, pointing to strategic reserves as a safeguard.

Mr Macron said the government’s priority was to help secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz “in full compliance with international law” and with guaranteed freedom of navigation.

Fuel prices have risen sharply since the start of the conflict, but French authorities have so far resisted calls for emergency measures, focusing instead on diplomatic efforts and supply management.