Marine Le Pen appeals public office ban: how could this impact France's 2027 presidential election?

A process of appeal by Marine Le Pen over a 2025 conviction for embezzlement will begin in Paris today (January 13), and could have major repercussions on next year’s presidential election. 

If parts of the original sentencing which bans Ms Le Pen from running for public office are overturned, it paves the way for the controversial MP of the Rassemblement National (RN) to run under the party’s banner in the 2027 presidential election.

The appeal process will last for around a month, but no decision is expected before summer 2026. 

Provided current French President Emmanuel Macron does not resign before this point, this gives Ms Le Pen enough time to prepare for a presidential campaign that current polls point towards her party winning.

If the original sentence is not overturned Ms Le Pen would face a complex political and legal process if she decides to make any further appeal. 

Depending on the outcome, new party heavyweight Jordan Bardella could become the party’s main candidate for the 2027 election.

What is Ms Le Pen appealing?

The appeal revolves around a 2025 sentencing against Ms Le Pen and 24 members of the Rassemblement National where they were found guilty of misusing EU funds by the Paris court.

The sentence saw Ms Le Pen fined €100,000, required to wear an electronic ankle bracelet for four years (two years suspended) and banned from running for public office for five years.

However, prosecutors used a little-known clause of ‘provisional execution’ that saw elements of the sentencing including the ban to run for office come into effect immediately before any appeal had been heard. 

Critics argued the court’s acceptance of provisional execution was politically motivated, and based on inflicting maximum damage to Ms Le Pen at a time where elections were possible. 

Appeals were launched for several of the sentences, including Ms Le Pen’s, with some having already been heard (although decisions have not been given). 

Some have also argued that the appeal should be ‘bumped up’ through Paris’ clogged court system to be heard in time for the 2027 election, including lawyers defending Ms Le Pen, who say the case being heard immediately prior to the 2026 municipal elections in March could affect the outcome of the vote.

Where does this leave Le Pen, Bardella and the RN?

The outcome of the appeal is far from known, however. 

If the sentence is overturned, it leaves Ms Le Pen free to run for the 2027 presidential election.

It is increasingly unlikely that a presidential election or even new legislative elections to return MPs will take place before this date, despite recent attempts by both the RN and far-left La France Insoumise to oust current Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu via votes of no confidence.

In turn, rising far-right star Jordan Bardella – widely expected to run as the party’s presidential candidate if Ms Le Pen is unable – is expected to take the place of the party’s prime ministerial candidate in the legislative elections following the presidential campaign.

In recent days, Mr Bardella has repeatedly said he is only interested in the prime ministerial role, providing tacit support for Le Pen to return to the spotlight as the far-right party’s leader and providing a cohesive front for the party.

He said that any restrictions on her ability to run in 2027 was an attack on democracy in France.

Despite his comments however, recent polls suggest RN members believe Mr Bardella would make a better president than Ms Le Pen (56% to 29%).

A far more confusing outcome is Ms Le Pen’s appeal failing.

The courts could reject her appeal and could include a new provisional execution ruling from the date of the summer 2026 result, again preventing her from running in 2027. 

Ms Le Pen and her lawyers have already stated they plan to appeal any failure to overturn the sentencing through the Cour de cassation, France’s highest judicial court.

If provisional execution is not included in the new ruling, Ms Le Pen would in theory still be able to run given an appeal to the Cour de cassation temporarily suspends measures of the sentence being appealed.

If the Cour de cassation does not make its final ruling until after the 2027 election date, it would allow Ms Le Pen to run in the election regardless of the final outcome.

If the Paris court does include a provisional execution in its summer 2026 ruling, it is unclear if the suspension from the Cour de cassation would also apply to this alongside the rest of the sentence.

The most complex outcome however would be a guilty sentence from the Paris courts that did not include provisional execution of a ban on running from office, appealed at the Cour de cassation by Ms Le Pen, with the results not heard until after the 2027 presidential election but Ms Le Pen being found guilty.

In this scenario, Ms Le Pen could run in the presidential election, and providing she wins could be guaranteed to remain in office for the next five years as her presidential immunity would prevent her from facing the ruling from the Cour de cassation until after her first term ended.